The annual results sequence has already begun. Scalens already reported on the Blackrock, Wells Fargo, JP Morgan Chase, Citigroup and Bank of America result releases.

As best-in-class, American banks often set the direction for the whole of global finance. For example, in the fourth quarter, they sharply increased provisions for bad debts, a move that economists everywhere have come to expect. But this year they are also adopting postures that are difficult to transpose to Europe: reduced interaction with shareholders, for the sake of efficiency; massive layoffs, in the name of the precautionary principle; and for the first time, no information on the bonuses of the executives concerned, even though they are in the accounts.

Provisions for credit defaults are at an all-time high, reflecting the fact that the difficulties are ahead of us. 2023 combines the end of government aid, geopolitical uncertainties and rising interest rates. JPMorgan Chase has increased its reserves by $1.4 billion, Citigroup by $640 million, Wells Fargo by $957 million. European banks can be expected to follow suit. The reserves built up in previous years will be able to absorb the loss, if it materializes.

But not everything is transposable this year. Communication format, for example. American banks have maintained the one-sided communication format designed for the health crisis: a very detailed financial press release posted online before the stock market, a more pedagogical slide presentation, and a short video interview with the executive, sometimes also with the financial director. No more live interaction with investors. The physical meeting has disappeared, and even the ritual “analyst call” where one could ask questions. European companies are not yet on board: all the usual meeting spaces have already been reserved for the February and March results presentations. Shareholder dialogue still has a future on this side of the Atlantic.

Still in the name of efficiency, the large American institutions are cutting costs quickly. Blackrock is laying off 500 people, Goldman Sachs, which has not yet announced its results, is announcing the elimination of 3,200 jobs, i.e. nearly 8% of its workforce. Morgan Stanley is shedding about 2% of its employees, or about 1,600 people. Wells Fargo announced a multi-billion dollar cost-cutting plan, without having yet calculated the social impact. In terms of form, employees received an email with their New Year’s greetings. European companies are more formal; but it is also true that they are slower to rehire than their American counterparts when the economy picks up. Efficiency can work both ways.

There is still one thing for these large American companies to announce: the salaries of their CEOs. It is in the accounts, but it is not detailed, unlike in previous years. Should we expect any surprises? In 2022, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs each granted 35 million dollars to their executives, JP Morgan 34.5 million, Bank of America 32 million dollars. That is 8 times more on average than for a bank manager in Europe. These decisions are always largely voted by shareholders.

The European banks are eagerly awaited. The first ones will speak in three weeks.